Causal-tracing localization does not predict the best edit layer
measured in 1 paperHase et al. sweep the target layer for ROME/MEMIT rank-one edits in GPT-J and GPT2-XL and regress edit success on edit layer and causal-tracing effect [hase-etal-2023-does-localization-inform-editing] For ROME on GPT-J, edit layer alone explains 94.7% of edit-success variance while the tracing effect explains 1.6% and adds only 0.1% [hase-etal-2023-does-localization-inform-editing] The raw correlation between edit success and tracing effect is slightly negative (rho=-0.13, p<1e-3), opposite the localize-then-edit assumption [hase-etal-2023-does-localization-inform-editing] A "Fact Forcing" variant reusing tracing's noised-subject input shows a small positive tracing contribution (up to 2.7%), isolated to the shared input format [hase-etal-2023-does-localization-inform-editing] This critiques the layer-selection heuristic, not the rank-one edit mechanism's own geometry [hase-etal-2023-does-localization-inform-editing]